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ABSTRACT The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is expected to observe galaxies at z > 10 that are presently inaccessible. Here, we use a self-consistent empirical model, the universemachine, to generate mock galaxy catalogues and light-cones over the redshift range z = 0−15. These data include realistic galaxy properties (stellar masses, star formation rates, and UV luminosities), galaxy–halo relationships, and galaxy–galaxy clustering. Mock observables are also provided for different model parameters spanning observational uncertainties at z < 10. We predict that Cycle 1 JWST surveys will very likely detect galaxies with M* > 107 M⊙ and/or M1500 < −17 out to at least z ∼ 13.5. Number density uncertainties at z > 12 expand dramatically, so efforts to detect z > 12 galaxies will provide the most valuable constraints on galaxy formation models. The faint-end slopes of the stellar mass/luminosity functions at a given mass/luminosity threshold steepen as redshift increases. This is because observable galaxies are hosted by haloes in the exponentially falling regime of the halo mass function at high redshifts. Hence, these faint-end slopes are robustly predicted to become shallower below current observable limits (M* < 107 M⊙ or M1500 > −17). For reionization models, extrapolating luminosity functions with a constant faint-end slope from M1500 = −17 down to M1500 = −12 gives the most reasonable upper limit for the total UV luminosity and cosmic star formation rate up to z ∼ 12. We compare to three other empirical models and one semi-analytic model, showing that the range of predicted observables from our approach encompasses predictions from other techniques. Public catalogues and light-cones for common fields are available online. 

ABSTRACT Galaxy clustering measurements can be used to constrain many aspects of galaxy evolution, including galaxy host halo masses, satellite quenching efficiencies, and merger rates. We simulate JWST galaxy clustering measurements at z ∼ 4–10 by utilizing mock galaxy samples produced by an empirical model, the universemachine. We also adopt the survey footprints and typical depths of the planned joint NIRCam and NIRSpec Guaranteed Time Observation program planned for Cycle 1 to generate realistic JWST survey realizations and to model high-redshift galaxy selection completeness. We find that galaxy clustering will be measured with ≳5σ significance at z ∼ 4–10. Halo mass precisions resulting from Cycle 1 angular clustering measurements will be ∼0.2 dex for faint (−18 ≳ $$\mathit {M}_{\mathrm{UV}}^{ }$$ ≳ −19) galaxies at z ∼ 4–10 as well as ∼0.3 dex for bright ($$\mathit {M}_{\mathrm{UV}}^{ }$$ ∼ −20) galaxies at z ∼ 4–7. Dedicated spectroscopic follow-up over ∼150 arcmin2 would improve these precisions by ∼0.1 dex by removing chance projections and low-redshift contaminants. Future JWST observations will therefore provide the first constraints on the stellar–halo mass relation in the epoch of reionization and substantially clarify how this relation evolves at z > 4. We also find that ∼1000 individual satellites will be identifiable at z ∼ 4–8 with JWST, enabling strong tests of satellite quenching evolution beyond currently available data (z ≲ 2). Finally, we find that JWST observations can measure the evolution of galaxy major merger pair fractions at z ∼ 4–8 with ∼0.1–0.2 dex uncertainties. Such measurements would help determine the relative role of mergers to the build-up of stellar mass into the epoch of reionization. 

ABSTRACT We present the hestia simulation suite: High-resolutions Environmental Simulations of The Immediate Area, a set of cosmological simulations of the Local Group. Initial conditions constrained by the observed peculiar velocity of nearby galaxies are employed to accurately simulate the local cosmography. Halo pairs that resemble the Local Group are found in low resolutions constrained, dark matter only simulations, and selected for higher resolution magneto hydrodynamic simulation using the arepo code. Baryonic physics follows the auriga model of galaxy formation. The simulations contain a high-resolution region of 3–5 Mpc in radius from the Local Group mid-point embedded in the correct cosmographic landscape. Within this region, a simulated Local Group consisting of a Milky Way and Andromeda like galaxy forms, whose description is in excellent agreement with observations. The simulated Local Group galaxies resemble the Milky Way and Andromeda in terms of their halo mass, mass ratio, stellar disc mass, morphology separation, relative velocity, rotation curves, bulge-disc morphology, satellite galaxy stellar mass function, satellite radial distribution, and in some cases, the presence of a Magellanic cloud like object. Because these simulations properly model the Local Group in their cosmographic context, they provide a testing ground for questions where environment is thought to play an important role.